A decade following the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that split the country and triggered turmoil, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two leading writers from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially fraught and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
New Title Aims to Stir Debate
The pair have studied the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the matter with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose implications have remained undefined because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the people who have won don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue that moment is looming, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there might be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has hidden the absence of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in academia but very few elected officials or activists seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, neither author endorses unification or the status quo. Each composes two pieces that strive for neutrality in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling financial and societal figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Arguments range over flags and symbols, taxes, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to inform and stimulate conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," said the writer. "Discussion implies an recognition of the concept that there might be good arguments on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they prefer unity but refuse greater financial contributions or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to determine what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it may take place suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who declares: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, legitimate arguments, he commented. "One side will prevail here and the other side will eventually lose but each side has got something to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."
Request for Broader Discussion
Westminster needed to join the discussion, stated the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish issue."
